Movie Trailers for August

So what's a few months between movie trailer looks?

JULY

Barbie - Senator Ted Cruz believes that Barbie is communist propaganda, so...movie of the year.

Oppenheimer - Cilian Murphy is still killing it as J. Robert Oppenheimer in a Christopher Nolan film. I haven't seen it. 

Barbieheimer - I believe in Barbieheimer.

Mission Impossible 5(?) of 6(?) - I hope this pays for 1--no, 2--high concept science fiction films that no one but Tom Cruise would make.

AUGUST

Having reconciled my predictions from January (below), I feel like I'm 0-4. No wins under my belt and stepping into the ring again. Fuck. In the future (not now, but in the future), I'll make sure the trailers for chosen movies include phrases like "released nationwide" and "actual humans will be informed this movie exists" and "this movie was not made to get Anna Kendrick an Oscar."

I say "0-4" but I started this a year ago. Sure I missed the last six months, but that's still surprising. I can also look at last year's numbers to guess at this year's.

White Bird

Helen Mirren gives her douchey, bully grandson a lesson about how kindness is, um, good, actually. Maybe your raised your kid to raise kids shitty ma'am. Big shades of Armageddeon Time, so $4M total.

Corner Office

A psychological thriller I should have removed from this list, but couldn't bring myself to. "Handsome actor plays insane schlub" is kind of a trope at this point, but I'm still compelled. 

For the record, John Hamm is not my type. Apparently indie films in the Winter do fuck-all for money, but I'm not going to let those low predictions hold me down. $2M total.

The Hill

Maybe if your small town country doctor is always wrong about your son's medical condition, start getting second opinions. Don't go back to the doctor who says your child will never walk after your child runs.

I feel like this is a pretty stock sports-in-the-face-of-adversity story, with Dennis Quaid playing what every middle-aged adult who owns a cowboy hat thinks they are like. A real follow-your-dreams-science-is-stupid-human-spirit-can-stop-degenerative-diseases piece of shit. 

I predict leaked webcam footage of Margarie Taylor-Greene touching herself while watching it and a $30M worldwide take.

Strays

It's no House Party. $60M and may the gods have mercy on our souls if it makes a penny more.

$110M

Blue Beetle

I forgot about this. I hope it does well and I like that it remembers Ted Kord. The story of Jaime Reyes doesn't have to take place as part of the story of Ted Kord (RIP), but that's what I prefer.

Black Adam pulled in $300M this time last year. Jaime Reyes is not The Rock. $250M and I think that's generous.

TMNT: Mutant Mayhem

I have a friend who pitched the idea of the teenage mutant ninja turtles turning evil because they're shunned by human society, but...this is that pitch except subverted because the turtles are good.

$80M

Last Voyage of the Demeter

Damn shame they're all going to die and the captain is going to be found lashed to the wheel.

(Also, it's a shame that the slow-roll version of "Bullet with Butterfly Wings" in the trailer tells us the movie itself is uninspired)

Tomatometer: 40/60

Gran Turismo

Based on a real story about a video gamer who did the thing from the video game. But again, it's the dramatization of a real story which loses me. I'd rather watch a documentary.

Tomatometer: 60/75

The Meg 2: The Trench

"Imagine The Abyss, and then take away theme and meaning."

$100M.

Bottoms

Seems either terrible or somewhat above average.

Let's assume above average: 60/60 Tomatometer.

The Adults

Standard drama fare. I'm glad Michael Cera is no longer playing that one character, but maybe he should play an actual character. I feel like this movie is incredibly workmanlike. 65/55 Tomatometer, $1M worldwide.

Honorable Mention to The Pod Generation, which looks interesting, but doesn't have a trailer. Is it better for a movie to have no trailer at all, or some kind of enigmatic, 10 second trailer?

January

M3gan - $95 mn Domestic / $85 mn International. Well above the $40M I predicted.

Happy Fkn Sunshine - No income reported. -/92 on Rotten Tomatoes. I predicted 85/73. So again way off. It makes sense that the people who saw this little movie would probably be predisposed to love it.

Come Find Me - Also no income. -/100 versus a predicted 67/89. I don't even know if this thing actually came out.

Infinity Pool - $5M. Not the $50M I predicted. 87/51 versus the predicted 54/74. I was very, very wrong about this. Why is one horror movie so successful and another isn't? I get why Infinity Pool did shithouse overseas; it's about a westerner going to a foreign country. Distribution? Was the self-referential fun of M3gan more interesting?

When You Finish Saving the World - Damn. I said $1M. It was $200,000. 63/73 actual Rotten Tomatoes versus my stab of 90/73. That 73 isn't a win; that's just randomness. I guess it wasn't a really good indie movie. Or maybe A24 released this in 403 closets instead of movie theaters by mistake.

The Old Way - I can't win for losing. I bet a (supposedly) low $500,000. It got $32,000 instead. I feel like that's a rounding error when held next to films making $180M. 

I got pretty close on the Tomatometer scores with a 32/70 versus my 45/65. I guess fans weren't as hot on this as I thought and critics were kinder to it.

Still, I don't think that, what?, 2,120 tickets can't possibly be something I could have predicted from the given information? Is there a thing on movies like, "This movie is only released on Elon Musk's swimming pool for $32,000 a ticket?"

A Man Called Otto - 85/93 was by tomatometer bet and it was 69/97. Not shabby. Well shabby, but closer. I figured the movie would probably be too broad for critics. Maybe they're also charmed by Tom Hanks. $109M actually earned versus my predicted $50M. 

That's not shabby.

Distant is still not released.

Alice, Darling - I had no predictions and it made $52,000 and 83/46 on the Tomatometer. It looks like Elon Musk got a date for that movie. It looks like it was just released for Oscar consideration. I guess that makes sense, but unless The Old Way was really ambitious, it still doesn't explain those numbers.

House Party - NINE. MILLION?! How does this movie not make bank? They've been making these movies forever! How is it that, suddenly, no one wants to see one? I predicted $75M. 

Oh, 28/60 on RottenTomatoes. I predicted 63/75. That's...linearly worse than expected.

December

Violent Night - I believe I posted $44 million domestically and $20 million internationally and 73/90 on Rotten Tomatoes.

Actual numbers were $50M/$27M and 73/88. That's pretty dang close.

The Whale - I think I hit this one pretty close, too. $17M/$23M actual versus a prediction of $15M/23M. My audience tomatometer score was off by 4 (87 versus 91). I was way off on the critic score. 

Critics only gave it a 64% fresh. I, of course, gave it a Peter Griffin Clapping At The End of Autum's Piano. So very wrong on that one.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - I called it a $111M by default when I saw a lack of other family films in the docket for December. It actually pulled in $186M. I really underestimated those family movies in December.

Babylon - I still don't know if Margot Robbie got her boobs out, but assuming she didn't, $60M predicted versus $63M actual is a solid fucking hit.

I was way off with the tomatometer I was betting 90/73 and this thing did sub-sixty numbers. Collectively unfresh.

I Wanna Dance with Somebody - $60M worldwide, like I predicted but my domestic/international split was 40/20 versus the actual 20/40. Interesting.

43/92 split on Tomatometer. I bet 80/85. I said it looked solid overall and Whitney Houston fans would like it. It looks like Whitney Houston fans liked it.

Empire of Light - I jokingly predicted three whole dollars on this one and it actually did $11M. $10M of that was overseas, naturally. I joked because it looked like one of those good movies that no one sees. That said, at a 45/74 on Rotten Tomatoes, it's...intriguing.

Renegades - I expected the straight-to-Apple+ piece of shit Renegades to rake in a Tomatometer of 53/67. It wasn't even critically reviewed, but like Happy Fkn Sunshine, the people who watched it loved it. -/94.

Spoiler Alert - I didn't make a prediction for Spoiler Alert, but it's $1.4M take was disappointing. 

Gods, that was a slog. Even planning this thing out and writing just a little bit each Wednesday of the month was exhausting. But I love this and I love how I've reached a point where I can look back and reference earlier movies to get a handle on the ebb and flows of new movies coming out. It's not on brand for anything else I do, but I enjoy it.