Hive Missiles (HiM)

In studying missiles to get the missile equations down, I had to look at the Cluster Hits Table several times. Like, 8. It sucked.

I hate the Cluster Hits Table. In the words of Madeleine Wool, "That's inelegant."

It's also weird how SRMs land with each missile hitting a different location and LRMs land in groups of 5. Even if they're using Dead Fire Missiles. Every missile in the Inner Sphere--even the Clans' Advanced Tactical Missiles--land in groups of five.

Thunderbolts don't count!

So the Hive Missile, which doesn't use the Cluster Hits Table and lands in groups of six.

Name Size Dmg/Msl ClSize  MinR  SR  MR  LR  Tons Crits Heat  Shots/Ton

HiM    6   1/msl   C6      3     6  12  18   3.0  1     2      22

HiM   12   1/msl   C6      3     6  12  18   5.5  2     4      11

HiM   18   1/msl   C6      3     6  12  18   8.5  4     6       7

HiM   24   1/msl   C6      3     6  12  18  11.0  5     8       5

HiM   30   1/msl   C6      3     6  12  18  14.0  6     9       4

HiM   36   1/msl   C6      3     6  12  18  16.5  1    11       3   

When rolling to see how many missiles hit, you just roll some D6's.

HiM 6 - Roll 1D6. A number of missiles hit equal to

The result.

HiM 12 - Roll a large 1D6 and a small 1D6. A number of missiles hit equal to 

[The large die result / 3 (round up) - 1 ] * 6 + the small die result.

HiM 18 - Roll a large 1D6 and a small 1D6. A number of missiles hit equal to 

[The large die result / 2 (round up) -1 ] * 6 + the small die result.

HiM 24 - Roll a large 1D6 and a small 1D6. A number of missiles hit equal to 

[The large die result (reroll 5's and 6's) -1 ] * 6 + the small die result.

HiM 30 - Roll a large 1D6 and a small 1D6. A number of missiles hit equal to 

[The large die result (reroll 6's) -1 ] * 6 + the small die result.

HiM 36 - Roll a large 1D6 and a small 1D6. A number of missiles hit equal to 

[The large die result -1 ] * 6 + the small die result.

Alternatively, you can roll 1D6 and multiply by the rack size/6. It's disappointing when your HiM 36 only does 6 damage, but them's the breaks.

AMS and AMS-like systems which reduce cluster rolls will divide their maluses to each die. Round down for the large die and round up for the small die. (Rounding negative numbers is done according to nearness to zero, not magnitude...-1.4 rounds up to -2)

New Missiles

I've run out of gas on creating missile systems. I've just looked too far into the abyss. They're all the same. So I'm just going to remake the ones I posted a few weeks ago.

Null-Signal Missiles -  How many ways can you say "dead-fire" or "unguided"? Lots, I suppose. Shit-ass rockets are a type. These feel more like reloadable rocket launchers than last week's iRLs.

Type   Tubes Dmg/ Cl MinR    SR   MR    LR THMod ClMod Tons Crits Ht Shot/               Msl                                                      Ton

NSM     12    2    2    -    3     5     8   +1   -2    0.5    5    8    15
NSM     17    2    2    -    3     5     8   +1   -2    1.0    5   10    18
NSM     22    2    2    -    3     5     8   +1   -2    1.0   12   14     8

Proximate Range Missiles - Is a one-ton system that deals 12 damage out to 6 hexes too strong? Probably. We also see the gears grind a bit as we get lots of tubes and small cluster malus. It's hard to account for stuff like that since the cluster mod uses an average value and doesn't really calculate the swing between many small missiles and a few larger ones.

Heavy Medium Lasers deal 10 damage per ton. The NSM 30 isn't quite that good. It actually generates more heat and requires more tonnage on account of ammunition. I feel it's too much though.

Type   Tubes Dmg/ Cl MinR    SR   MR    LR THMod ClMod Tons Crits Ht Shot/               Msl                                                      Ton

PRM     12    1    6    -    2     4     6   -1   -1    1.0    2    4    44
PRM     18    1    6    -    2     4     6   -1   -1    2.0    4    6    29
PRM     24    1    6    -    2     4     6   -1   -1    2.5    5    8   22
PRM     30    1    6    -    2     4     6   -1   -1    3.5    6    9  17

Boosted SRM - That to-hit penalty is probably too steep. It's another way to absolutely slam crits into an enemy. It's a lot tubes per ton, that's for sure.

Type   Tubes Dmg/ Cl MinR    SR   MR    LR THMod ClMod Tons Crits Ht Shot/               Msl                                                      Ton

BSRM     3    1    1    -    1     4     9   +2   +2    0.5    1    1    85
BSRM     6    1    1    -    1     4     9   +2   +2    1.0    1    2    42
BSRM     9    1    1    -    1     4     9   +2   +2    1.5    2    3    28
BSRM    12    1    1    -    1     4     9   +2   +2    2.0    2    4    21

Light LRM - LRMs can't do less damage per missile, but they can have more spread. I've also made it a Clan system and halved the weight. I'm sure making a system into a clan system is more involved than that, but this is just spitballs.

Type   Tubes Dmg/ Cl MinR    SR   MR    LR THMod ClMod Tons Crits Ht Shot/               Msl                                                      Ton

LLRM     5    1    1    -    5    10    15    0   +1    1.0    1    2    11
LLRM    10    1    1    -    5    10    15    0   +1    2.0    2    4     5
LLRM    15    1    1    -    5    10    15    0   +1    3.5    3    5     3
LLRM    20    1    1    -    5    10    15    0   +1    4.5    5    7     2

Nightquest - Not every system is good. The ones I post tend to be normal to too-good, so here's an objectively bad system: the nightquest. Sure, 5 damage per missile bypasses a lot of the cluster roll shenanigans, but is doing 10 damage at 37 hexes worth 42 tons? Of course not. Fuck this thing.

Type   Tubes Dmg/ Cl MinR    SR   MR    LR THMod ClMod Tons Crits Ht Shot/               Msl                                                      Ton

NQt      1    5    5    8   10    20    37   -1    0   37.0    1    3     5
NQt      2    5    5    8   10    20    37   -1    0   42.0    2    4     2
NQt      3    5    5    8   10    20    37   -1    0   63.0    3    5     1
NQt      4    5    5    8   10    20    37   -1    0   84.5    5    7     1

Missile Equations: Finale, Pt II

Me: "This blog has text in it. Must be ready to ship."

This is just a list of some test missile systems with feedback. All of the ones listed here are variations on a theme: LRMs with one extra damage per missile. SRMs that only deal one damage. Reloadable Rocket Launchers. 

Next week I'll be doing more esoteric missiles, hopefully with input from the comments and possibly Reddit's r/Battletech sub.

Short LRMs - These are LRM systems with the range of SRMs. These seem fair. Sure, an S-LRM5 does more damage than an SRM 2, but it's just a shit medium laser. Compared to stacked medium lasers, they definitely lose out.

Type   Tubes Dmg/ Cl MinR    SR   MR    LR THMod ClMod Tons Crits Ht Shot/               Msl                                                      Ton

S-LRM5   5    1    5    -    3     6     9    0    0    1.0    1    2    63
S-LRM10 10    1    5    -    3     6     9    0    0    2.5    2    4    31
S-LRM15 15    1    5    -    3     6     9    0    0    4.0    3    5    21
S-LRM20 20    1    5    -    3     6     9    0    0    5.5    5    7   15

Long SRMs - SRMs with the range of an LRM. A cluster version of an LRM 20 comes in pretty close to the original article.Terrible ammo efficiency though. I'm sure if you could peel off armor at a decent enough range, these would be nice. Might also be good for trying to score crits on vees at a distance. Maybe a poor man's HAG?

Type   Tubes Dmg/ Cl MinR    SR   MR    LR THMod ClMod Tons Crits Ht Shot/               Msl                                                      Ton

LSRM2    2    2    2    6    7    14    21    0    0    1.5    1    2    19
LSRM3    3    2    2    6    7    14    21    0    0    2.5    1    2    12
LSRM4    4    2    2    6    7    14    21    0    0    3.5    1    3    9
LSRM5    5    2    2    6    7    14    21    0    0    4.5    2    4    7
LSRM6    6    2    2    6    7    14    21    0    0    5.5    2    4    6
LSRM7    7    2    2    6    7    14    21    0    0    6.5    3    5    5
LSRM8    8    2    2    6    7    14    21    0    0    7.5    4    6    4
LSRM9    9    2    2    6    7    14    21    0    0    8.0    4    6    4
LSRM10  10    2    2    6    7    14    21    0    0    9.0    5    7    3

LBMs - If we can fire off missiles at any range with a -1 to-hit and clusters of one damage, do we create missiles better than LBX autocannons? Versatility and ammo efficiency aside? Yes we do. The LBM is "invalid" because it just doesn't have any crits. That's usually a hard stop.

But y'know, versatility is one of the big draws of LBX autocannons, so maybe it is fair.

Type   Tubes Dmg/ Cl MinR    SR   MR    LR THMod ClMod Tons Crits Ht Shot/               Msl                                                      Ton

LBM2     5    1    1    4    9    18    27   -1    0    4.5    0    1    28
LBM5    10    1    1    3    8    14    21   -1    0    4.5    1    2    12
LBM10   15    1    1    -    6    12    18   -1    0    6.5    2    4     5
LBM20   20    1    1    -    4     8    12   -1    0    7.5    5    7    3

Heavy SRMs - What is SRMs did 3 damage per missile instead of 2? They're heavier. Comparable to streak missiles, really. The loss of ammo efficiency isn't bad. It's probably an asset.

Type   Tubes Dmg/ Cl MinR    SR   MR    LR THMod ClMod Tons Crits Ht Shot/               Msl                                                      Ton

HSRM2    2    3    3    -    3     6     9    0    0    1.5    1    2    41
HSRM4    4    3    3    -    3     6     9    0    0    3.0    2    4    20
HSRM6    6    3    3    -    3     6     9    0    0    5.0    4    6    13

Light SRMs - These are probably a bit too good if your primary use for SRMs is critseeking. The LtSRM 2 doesn't generate enough critical spaces to exist, so it's not here.

Type   Tubes Dmg/ Cl MinR    SR   MR    LR THMod ClMod Tons Crits Ht Shot/               Msl                                                      Ton

LtSRM4   4    1    1    -    3     6     9    0    0    1.0    1    2    35
LtSRM6   6    1    1    -    3     6     9    0    0    1.5    1    2    23

iMRMs - MRMs without the +1 modifier. Are they usable? They're a little heavier, but not prohibitively so. The MRM 30 and 40 creep up there.

Type   Tubes Dmg/ Cl MinR    SR   MR    LR THMod ClMod Tons Crits Ht Shot/               Msl                                                      Ton

iMRM10  10    1    5    -    3     8    15    0    0    3.5    2    4    16
iMRM20  20    1    5    -    3     8    15    0    0    7.5    5    7    8
iMRM30  30    1    5    -    3     8    15    0    0   11.5    6    9    5
iMRM40  40    1    5    -    3     8    15    0    0   15.5    7   12    4

iRLs - Rocket launchers that can reload. Still pretty light, but obviously not as much as regular RLs. They compete more with MRMs, These get a little unexciting after a while. I take that as a good sign.

Type   Tubes Dmg/ Cl MinR    SR   MR    LR THMod ClMod Tons Crits Ht Shot/               Msl                                                      Ton

iRL10   10    1    5    -    5    11    18   +1   -2    3.0    2    4    22
iRL15   15    1    5    -    5    11    18   +1   -2    5.0    3    5    14
iRL20   20    1    5    -    5    11    18   +1   -2    6.5    5    7    11

Thunderbolt x2's - If an existing Thunderbolt system can be brought down by an AMS, why not allow them to make two shots? That redundancy costs a lot though. I'd take a cluster roll for what is essentially a UAC/15 that strikes at 18 hexes for fewer tons than an AC/20. If you were curious about that "Fuck Autocannons" post from earlier this week, shit like this is why (also crunching AC numbers).

Type   Tubes Dmg/ Cl MinR    SR   MR    LR THMod ClMod Tons Crits Ht Shot/               Msl                                                      Ton

TBx2 5   2    5    5    3    6    12    18    0    0    4.5    2    4    12
TBx2 10  2   10   10    3    6    12    18    0    0    9.0    5    7     8
TBx2 15  2   15   15    3    6    12    18    0    0   13.5    6    9     7
TBx2 20  2   20   20    3    6    12    18    0    0   18.5    7    12    6

Surgical Missiles - The only original weapon system on this list. It has a -2 to hit and a +2 cluster roll bonus. Missiles are in groups of four because...why not? Mostly because of the terrible damage/ton efficiency, that's why not. There's no reason to take an SM16 over two SM8's, but at least it's consistent with canon missile systems.

It's got awful damage per ton though. Sure, it's consistent, but you're comparing a weapon system that clusters closer to an upper end of 12 damage to an LRM 20.

Type   Tubes Dmg/ Cl MinR    SR   MR    LR THMod ClMod Tons Crits Ht Shot/               Msl                                                      Ton

SM4     4    1    4    2    5    10    15   -2   +2    3.0    1    2    28
SM8     8    1    4    2    5    10    15   -2   +2    6.0    1    3    14
SM12   12    1    4    2    5    10    15   -2   +2    9.5    2    4     9
SM16   16    1    4    2    5    10    15   -2   +2   12.5    4    6     7

Next week I'll repost a selection of the old custom missiles I generated last time with new stats and missile systems suggested by other people.

I also promised some expanded missile systems, LRM 11's and whatnot. I'll post those Monday.

Missile Equations: Finale, Pt I

Man, after a lot of work, I finally have my 'good enough' missile equations. Let's get to it.

Is It Good?

So I ran these equations for SRMs, LRMs, and MRMs. I had to do the rest as templates because the numbers were cray. I also had to base factors on two things: damage per shot and to-hit over 38 hexes.

Damage per shot lumped damage per missile and missiles per shot (tubes) into one big factor that ignored cluster size. Surely, SRMs would change significantly if they landed in clusters of 5. These equations mostly don't care about that. Somehow, I made equations that allow for Thunderbolt launchers to be added as a template.

To-hit over 38 hexes, TH38, looks at the maximum range of Extended LRMs and using that as a cap, incorporates cluster bonuses/maluses, to-hit bonuses/maluses, minimum ranges, and range brackets into one factor that can be worked with. All I cared about was that the TH38 for SRMs was less than that for MRMs, which was less than that for LRMs. It was, so I ran with it.

Battletech Missile Equations, Part IV

Two weeks ago, I talked about the difficulties of reverse engineering Battletech missiles with linear regression and I posted some examples of the results of some of the regressions. Let me share another set of results

Name Dmg/Msl Cl  Min  SR  MR    LR   Tubes    Tons   Heat  Crits Ammo

SLRM    1   5    0    3    6     9    5         1.5     0    2    33     

LLRM    1   5   10   13   25    38    5         2.5     3    1    14 

LSRM    2   2   10   13   27    40    2         1.0     3    1    17

Somehow, tonnage of a launcher ended up being invariant with range. I added improved one-shot launchers and LRMs with specialty ammunition like dead-fire munitions. I also created flags for non-linear qualities, like being indirect-fire capable, being able to use specialty munitions, and having cluster roll maluses.

Maybe all those duplicate LRM profiles made the ton per tube correlation so strong that the equation didn't give a shit about range. I don't know if that follows since standard LRM 5's and LRM 10's can't manage to hit 2.0 and 5.0 tons like they're supposed to. Those are modeled separately by number of tubes, so you'd expect it to hit right.

Battletech Missile Equations, Part III

Analysis

So it's easy for Python to perform linear regression on a set of data and spit out coefficients. So that's the answer, right? Put in the range, damage per missile, cluster size, tonnage, etc. into a computer, plug the numbers that come out in front of new ranges, damages, etc. and enjoy your new, canon-consistent missiles.

That doesn't work for a few reasons:

Negative Coefficients

It turns out that as medium range goes up, the tonnage and crit requirements for the missile drop. I'm not sure why; I think it has something to do with MRMs and Rocket Launchers having a range distribution that doesn't match the 1/2/3 pattern of most weapons. 

Most coefficients for missiles per shot are positive, which means that somehow the more capable a missile is the more of them you can cram into one ton of storage space. 

Those types of effects would be a problem--and they are: a super-light missile system with a 1/20/21 range bracket would be a problem. Fortunately, we're deriving tons/missile tube, crits/missile tube, heat/missile tube, and missiles/ton from our set of data. That means that if we try to min/max one stat with a 'bad' coefficient, the other stats will swing back around and cancel it out.

Battletech Missile Equations Part II

I'm still trying to unwind Battletech's various missile systems. I guess I haven't talked about my aims. I'd like to develop a Grand Unified Theory of Battletech Missiles to create missile racks of any damage per missile, range, and missiles per shot. 

I'd also accept a Pretty Close Unified Theory of Battletech Missiles.

The Intuitive Approach

Battletech Missile Equations, Pt I

A long time ago, I did some laser equations. I may have also done some work with AC equations. I forget. At the very least, I believe there's an old Battletech forum post desconstructing autocannons.

But I haven't seen/done that kind of work on missiles. For starters, missiles are stupid. Why only SRMs 2-6? Why not an LRM 25? And once you open up the cluster hits table to cover everything from 2 to 20, that question is even more pertinent. Multi-missile launchers run from 3 to 9 and launch either type of missile, so they certainly don't give a shit.

Then there's the tonnage issue. If an LRM 10 will drop about the same average damage as two LRM 5's, you have to justify why you'd take the LRM 10. That's especially hard when you save a ton by running two of the lighter systems.

There are so many of them! The unguided medium range missiles. The differently-guided rocket launchers. Enhanced LRMs which are abbreviated as NLRMs because Extended LRMs are the ELRMs. Streak systems which are more reliable, but no more precise and Thunderbolt launchers which are just one, big missile. Like an autocannon.

Did you know Arrow IV artillery systems were missiles? You probably did. I never use artillery. I thought they were all ballistic because as far as I know, artillery is always ballistic. Otherwise, it's just sparkling cruise missile.

Rocket Launchers above RL 10's. That's this paragraph's premise, point, and evidence.

The first analysis is per missile tube. Heat per tube, tons per tube, critical slots per tube, etc. The next is tons of damage and number of missiles to maybe "missile size." The final part of the preliminaries is an analysis of guidance systems (including minimum ranges).

Name       Tons/Missile* Heat/Missile* Crits/Missile*
LRM 5           0.4          0.4           0.2
LRM 10          0.5          0.4           0.2
LRM 15          0.467        0.333         0.2
LRM 20          0.5          0.3           0.25
SRM 2           0.5          1             0.5
SRM 4           0.5          0.75          0.25
SRM 6           0.5          0.667         0.333
NLRM 5          0.6          0.4           0.4
NLRM 10         0.6          0.4           0.4
NLRM 15         0.6          0.333         0.4
NLRM 20         0.6          0.3           0.45
ELRM 5          1.2          0.6           0.2
ELRM 10         0.8          0.6           0.4
ELRM 15         0.8          0.533         0.4
ELRM 20         0.9          0.6           0.4
MML 3           0.5          0.667         0.667
MML 5           0.6          0.6           0.6
MML 7           0.643        0.571         0.571
MML 9           0.667        0.556         0.556
MRM 10          0.3          0.4           0.2
MRM 20          0.35         0.3           0.15
MRM 30          0.333        0.333         0.167
MRM 40          0.3          0.3           0.175
SSRM 2          0.75         1             0.5
SSRM 4          0.75         0.75          0.25
SSRM 6          0.75         0.667         0.333
Thunderbolt 5   0.6          0.6           0.2
Thunderbolt 10  0.7          0.5           0.2
Thunderbolt 15  0.733        0.467         0.2
Thunderbolt 20  0.75         0.4           0.25
RL 10           0.05         0.3           0.1
RL 15           0.067        0.267         0.133
RL 20           0.075        0.25          0.15
           
*Thunderbolt stats are based on missile damage, not per missile.    

I thought this shit was wild before. The LRMs and SRMs mostly work. Larger racks are more heat efficient than the smaller ones. That's a reason to use them over banked smaller ones...a little bit. Their crits get worse, which is weird and it's obvious the LRM 5 and LRM 15 should weigh an extra half ton, especially when NLRMs keep a consistent set of curves without tonnage inconsistencies. But I guess fractions are for machine guns.

The MMLs are great. Their heat and crit efficiency increase as the rack size goes up, even if the gross tonnage efficiency drops. That's so great. Big racks are better for heavier 'mechs with more heat and fewer crits. Three MML 3's weigh has much as an MML 7, but they generate more heat and have more crits than an MML 9. Not much more, but a little more. 

It feels like the MMLs were crafted in a way that, say, MRMs were not. MRMs go home; you are drunk. MRM 10 and 40 have the same tonnage efficiency, which is better than the 20 and 30. MRM 20 and 40 have the same heat efficiency, which is better than the 10 and 30. The MRM 10 is, relatively speaking, a crit-hog, the MRM 20 is the most crit-efficient, and the line trends down to the MRM 30 and MRM 40.

There's no real rule to them. I don't get it at all. Look: The crit and heat efficiencies of the MML 9 are pathetic in a game where weight is usually the number that matters. Was the goal to counter any intuitive understanding of efficiency and just make players use an MRM 40 where they needed an MRM 40?

Are MRM's trolling us? 

The extended LRMs follow a set pattern, except for the ELRM 5, which is way off the curve. The ELRM 15's bizarre 8 heat (instead of 9) also begs some questions. Just one question. "Why is the the ELRM's heat not 9 instead of 8?".

Streak SRMs are just extensions of SRMs and even Thunderbolts are logical and linear, with efficiency of the Thunderbolt 20 bottoming out because it's a fucking AC/20 with the range of a PPC.

Rocket Launchers are on crack. You'd have to be hard-up for crits to choose a RL 15 or RL 20 ever. I have no idea how their range gets worse, especially when Rocket Launchers let you individually shoot smaller volleys.

There's no Clan equipment here, because this is already a big enough mess. If there is a grand unifying theory of missiles, it won't include them.

Next time, I'm going to logically asses the reasonable factors behind what makes missiles act the way they do (fuel, payload, sensors, reload requirements, and 'blast containment') and why we should probably throw it all out the window.