Battletech Missile Equations, Part IV

Two weeks ago, I talked about the difficulties of reverse engineering Battletech missiles with linear regression and I posted some examples of the results of some of the regressions. Let me share another set of results

Name Dmg/Msl Cl  Min  SR  MR    LR   Tubes    Tons   Heat  Crits Ammo

SLRM    1   5    0    3    6     9    5         1.5     0    2    33     

LLRM    1   5   10   13   25    38    5         2.5     3    1    14 

LSRM    2   2   10   13   27    40    2         1.0     3    1    17

Somehow, tonnage of a launcher ended up being invariant with range. I added improved one-shot launchers and LRMs with specialty ammunition like dead-fire munitions. I also created flags for non-linear qualities, like being indirect-fire capable, being able to use specialty munitions, and having cluster roll maluses.

Maybe all those duplicate LRM profiles made the ton per tube correlation so strong that the equation didn't give a shit about range. I don't know if that follows since standard LRM 5's and LRM 10's can't manage to hit 2.0 and 5.0 tons like they're supposed to. Those are modeled separately by number of tubes, so you'd expect it to hit right.

 

I checked the equations to return some good-enough models of canon equipment, but I made dozens of custom missiles before I checked for variations on those base weapons. C'est la vie.

But I super-swore to myself that that was my last linear regression. I could keep running the numbers forever and I don't think I'd get too much closer.

My next step is a quadratic analysis. The whole X + X^2 + Y + Y^2 + XY + YX^2 + XY^2 + C thing.

Those terms are all for just two factors. If I included the 20 factors I used for the linear regression it'd be a massive equation to make and hell to calculate, even if a computer was doing it. So I had to simplify it.

Max Damage per Shot - Damage per missile and number of missiles is tied into one factor.

Percent Damage per Shot over 38 hexes - Integrating general to-hit modifiers with range bracket modifiers and cluster roll averages.

Cluster Size - I'm on the fence with this one. There's a trade-off between dealing solid damage to one hit location and seeking holes in a target's armor. I wouldn't call it a wash. Maybe the extremes are bad? Maybe we should keep cluster:damage ratios at a certain level? An SRM 6 would run about 6:2. An LRM 20 4:5. Those are relatively square. An SRM 6 that landed in clusters of five would be 5:3, which is a bit square-er, but a 2C LRM 20 would run 10:2, which is dangerous.

Heck, LB-X autocannons don't break the game, so maybe it doesn't matter.

Tonnage/Heat/Crits - There's no simplifying this stuff because it has to be here.

Bonuses/Maluses - How to represent hotloaded missiles? Missiles that deal reduced damage at medium range? The ability to use indirect fire? Streak missiles' ability to not fire if they miss? I'm just going to plonk down a linear set of numbers to correlate with those and call it a day. It would be hard to figure which one is worth how much, but I'm willing to deal with some variability.

TL;DR, I'm no closer to to a real equation than I was when I started. Here's some pretend missiles and some notes. I'll probably keep some of the names.

Standoff Missile System - This deals about 4 damage at longer than than an LRM. It's got hella ammo and -1 to-hit bonus to offset its heavy weight. There's a malus on the cluster roll because I guess the missiles spread a bit. 

It also has the ability of MMLs to shoot different missile types. I never worked out the compatibility issue; if I can fill a sheet with missiles, how do I know which other missiles it can use? I eventually decided same total missiles per ton, plus or minus 20%, which lets the MML use SRMs (100 missiles per ton) or LRMs (120 missiles per ton). For the SMS that's 292, plus or minus 58.

Compact Artillery Missile - I'm not doing every system, but the CAM shoots out longer than an LRM and drops missiles with 3 damage each in clusters of 12. The ammunition is stupid generous, but that's a theme (I don't know why).

The +2 to hit isn't really balanced by the Artemis IV compatibility. It just bad. Maybe I'd fluff some kind of artillery-like fire mode, like I did with Mass Fire Missiles a million years ago. Compatible with SMS.

YYL45 - I put constrains on most systems (that's what the TRUE column means). The YYL breaks those rules and I had to manually override that TRUE flag to get the special abilities to load. The issue is that it will create equipment that's nonsensical is allowed. Is a 45-tube super-LRM that shoots streak missiles out to 3 km and lands shots in groups of 156 worth 128 tons? Maybe.

With the introduction of mobile structures, shit like that could actually fly. No idea how it compares to capital missiles.

Lots of these are just SRMs with varying payloads, ranges puffed up past standard LRMs, tons of ammo, and MRM-y range brackets.

The Tag-Assisted Platform demonstrates the formula's weird penchant for giving unitary missile systems TONS of fucking ammo. I reviewed the Thunderbolt stats to see why, but I couldn't find a good answer. If I had to push these out, I'd cut the ammo by damage per missile down to 70, 34, 22, and 16. Still hearty, but not insane.

They're basically LRM-ranged autocannons with a -2 to hit and indirect-fire abilities. 

Streak-Guided Unit - They're outperforming actual Streak LRMs, which are Clantech. There's a slight range hit, but that's a small price to pay. Too good. Compatible with SMS, if you can use a streak system like that.

Quantum-Intelligent Missiles have accuracy and cluster bonuses for what's a scatter-fire LRM. Compatible with the SMS.

Rogue Jet System - If you liked head shots and don't mind +1 to hit modifiers, the RJS might be for you. It's hard for it to deal that 16 damage because of the cluster malus though. The random nature of these systems might be that they tend to cut across their own grain, Artemis IV or not.

IGM11/CM11 - Did you ever want a worse AC/20? A worse one? It's more accurate, has more ammo, and you can cancel the cluster malus with Artemis IV, but at the same time...it's really bad.

The Lightning Bolt system a series of "Worse AC/20s," I can't compare them to anything else. It's also a unitary missile system that's compatible with Artemis IV. Maybe there's a Clan version that's compatible with Artemis V. People loved adding the Apollo system to their MRMs to make them not suck, right?

LLRMs - I opted to wave a wand and declare them Clan. Why not? So halve those weights. LRMs with a shorter range that hit like LB-Xes. Slight to-hit penalty, but a cluster bonus. Strangely stingy with ammo.

On the other hand, you've got Heavy LRMs, which weight a lot more, but cluster damage better. Again, they're so heavy and the +1 to-hit is painful.

GFY - The GFY 2 mas messed up because I was running tests with it, but the other GFYs are ridiculous. They've got the ranges of Extended LRMs and drop in huge chunks. They're heavier than standard LRMs from a damage perspective. Stingy with ammo.

And oh yeah, the +3 to-hit malus. That honestly seems fair for any system which hits from that distance. I'd honestly roll that into a +2 to range brackets, with lore related to C3 systems. It's hella bad.

Hopefully, there will be better results from the quadratic analysis next week.