It's all well and good to door the flavor of the week in the 2026 election. In less than a month, we all better drag our sorry carcasses into voting booths and take a solid, measurable step towards taking the united states–or maybe the Unites States--out of the massive credibility hole it's in.
And moral hole.
And military hole.
and economic hole.
And military hole.
and economic hole.
There's a midterm election, and mid term elections generally have poor turnout. The votes of the people who do turn up for them are more important. The midterm with the highest turnout in recent history was 2018, when Democrats took the House of Representatives with enough power to impeach President Trump, but not enough seats in the Senate to remove him from power for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.
So while we ponder that, let's look at the battlefield of the midterm elections in 2026. Where are the turning points? What are our goals, and where are the turning points? The media likes James Talarico and he seems nice, but the keys of a blue Texas have been dangled above reasonable people ever since reasonable people knew the dual act of Abbott & Paxton. As Bill Shatner once said, i"it hasn't happened yet."
So let's look beyond the faces, but keep our eyes on the handful of relevant races. First, there are a lot of sources for this, these will be at the end . Maybe just skip down and read some of those instead. The Guardian one is pretty good.
Look, Indivisible did 80% of this already.
538 was a good site with a lot of data, but it was bought by ABC for the power of the 538 brand and then ABC shut it down and directed that traffic to ABC's politics news page, which does not have that data.
The House
The house has 435 races. About 361 of those are classified as "safe" races, where one party is generally assumed to win (185 Democratic, 176 Republican). Another 74 are not safe.
Likely Democratic: 12
Leaning Democratic: 11
Toss-Up: 22
Leaning Republican: 10
Likely Republican: 19
It takes 218 seats to take the house, that's about 208 likely seats for the Democratic Party and about 204 for the Republicans. Democrats need to take 10 of those 22 to have a majority. The Republicans need 14 of them. 9 and 13 would be a tie. And my understanding is that a tie vote in the House is a failure of the measure at hand.
This even with extensive redistricting by Republican-led states to eliminate districts that lean Democratic. Y'know, gerrymandering.
It's worth noting that gerrymandering is bad insomuch as it works. But when it's used to give a minority party, like the Republican party, an outsized say in government, it also stretches that party very thinly. That third grouping of precincts creates a 3-2 split in favor of the red party, but those three can be turned with just a few shifts in votes. That 3-2 becomes 2-3 with as little as 4% of the electorate shifting. 12% causes an electoral collapse.
Everyone should go out and vote for their House member. Everyone has to do it and every one of them matters.
But just for funsies, let's look at a few east-coast districts that are close. Personally, I like going to bed early on election night and dealing with the details in the morning. It's not a sporting event and getting all wound up about half-completed results you can't change doesn't seem emotionally healthy.
If we are writing something for folks who won't be able to sleep soundly until they know, then a sample of close House races can give an early indication of whether the results match the strong polling of Democratic candidates, or if it comes out higher or lower than expected.
Leaning Democratic: 11
Toss-Up: 22
Leaning Republican: 10
Likely Republican: 19
It takes 218 seats to take the house, that's about 208 likely seats for the Democratic Party and about 204 for the Republicans. Democrats need to take 10 of those 22 to have a majority. The Republicans need 14 of them. 9 and 13 would be a tie. And my understanding is that a tie vote in the House is a failure of the measure at hand.
This even with extensive redistricting by Republican-led states to eliminate districts that lean Democratic. Y'know, gerrymandering.
It's worth noting that gerrymandering is bad insomuch as it works. But when it's used to give a minority party, like the Republican party, an outsized say in government, it also stretches that party very thinly. That third grouping of precincts creates a 3-2 split in favor of the red party, but those three can be turned with just a few shifts in votes. That 3-2 becomes 2-3 with as little as 4% of the electorate shifting. 12% causes an electoral collapse.
Everyone should go out and vote for their House member. Everyone has to do it and every one of them matters.
But just for funsies, let's look at a few east-coast districts that are close. Personally, I like going to bed early on election night and dealing with the details in the morning. It's not a sporting event and getting all wound up about half-completed results you can't change doesn't seem emotionally healthy.
If we are writing something for folks who won't be able to sleep soundly until they know, then a sample of close House races can give an early indication of whether the results match the strong polling of Democratic candidates, or if it comes out higher or lower than expected.
Say what you will about SNL.
No, that's the whole concept. Say whatever.
Close Eastern-Time House Races
Florida District 14 - The incumbent Democratic Representative, Kathy Castor, is in a dead heat with her challenger, Mike Beltran. It's one of the closest races in Castor's 20 years in the House because it was redistricted.
Another take on gerrymandering is that even if races are closer, candidates have to, theoretically, lean a bit further to the opposing side to continue holding power. For better or for worse. I'm not saying Kathy Castor is doing that, I'm just saying that she's probably thought about it.
Florida District 14 - The incumbent Democratic Representative, Kathy Castor, is in a dead heat with her challenger, Mike Beltran. It's one of the closest races in Castor's 20 years in the House because it was redistricted.
Another take on gerrymandering is that even if races are closer, candidates have to, theoretically, lean a bit further to the opposing side to continue holding power. For better or for worse. I'm not saying Kathy Castor is doing that, I'm just saying that she's probably thought about it.
If Castor takes it on November 3rd, then it's a good sign for the Democratic party that some of those races on the edge might fall into the basket, if not, it's a bad sign for a blue wave.
Florida District 22 - District 22 is a toss-up in some polls, but labeled as leaning Republican in a lot more. 22 was cut up by redistricting so the incumbent is running a race in the safe District 23. If Pia Dandiya wins, it could be an indicator that Democrats are beating the polling numbers. If Casey Askar wins, less so.
Florida District 25 - A redistricted frankenstein's monster, the 25th is made up from the leftover parts of other nearby gerrymanders. Incumbent Jared Moskowitz' edge is within the margin of error. If he loses to Scott Singer it's a bad sign for Democratic candidates. If he wins by a secure margin, it's likely going to be a sign that voters pulling for the Democrats can relax a bit.
North Carolina District 11 - Incumbent Chuck Edwards won his primary, but dropped out of the race following censure by the US House over a report that he sexually harassed two female staffers. The vote was 413 to 2.
It's not clear if North Carolina voters will have the same reservations about the committee-selected Jennifer Balkcom who replaced him on the Republican ballot that they did with Kamala Harris, but since the race is close, we can assume this is, presumably, different somehow.
Expect more salt, and a Republican lean to the evening, if she defeats Democratic candidate Jamie Ager.
Michigan District 7 - No redistricting drama here. Just a close race with a slight advantage to the Democratic challenger. It's a simple bellwether: Republican Tom Barrett versus Democratic candidate William Lawrence.
Michigan District 10 - Just like 7, no drama. Christina Hines (D) vs Michael Bouchard (R).
No single race is going to show how things will go that night, but taken together, they can give a broader view of the trends. Unless they land 50/50. If you don't want to wait for the Alaskan polls to close, I hope they don't.
Senate Races
Speaking of Alaska, the bar for the Democratic party to take control of the Senate is much higher. If they get half of the seats in the Senate, they still don't have control because the Vice President, a Republican, gets to break ties. They need 51.
Actually, because Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman (D) is leaning Republican, they probably need 52.
The nature of the Senate is that only about a third of the seats are up for election. There are 34 Democratic Senators and 31 Republican Senators not up for re-election in 2026. The other 35 are.
Just like the House, a lot of those seats–about 22–are considered safe, which yields the following breakdown of seats in play:
Likely Democratic: 2 (Georgia, Minnesota)
Leaning Democratic: 1 (North Carolina)
Tossup: 7
Leaning Republican: 1 (Kansas)
Likely Republican: 2 (Nebraska, South Carolina)
Now, let me qualify a bit here. What different sources consider "likely" or "leaning" varies. This source tends to trend a bit further right than the others, but it has the fewest toss-ups for me to focus on. If you want to look at leaning states and see if you can contribute to candidates there, by all means, go ahead.
Alaska - Alaska's primaries are run so that they put the top four finishers–of any party on the ballot. One candidate was removed after an investigation found he was only running because he had a name very similar to that of the Republican incumbent, Dan S. Sullivan. Sullivan came in second in the primary to Mary Peltola, a Democrat. Polling since has gone back and forth, always with enough undecided voters to swing the final result.
Interesting facts:
-This is the second election where Alaska uses ranked voting to decide their Senator, which allows a wider field of candidates.
-Alaska's time zone is one hour after Pacific Time, so it'll be late for most of us when that result comes in.
-Alaska's time zone is one hour after Pacific Time, so it'll be late for most of us when that result comes in.
Maine - Have you ever heard the story of Graham Platner, the Hype? Platner dropped out of his challenge to Susan Collins (R) after allegations of sexual assault against him came to light. Troy Jackson was elected by a Democratic nominating convention to replace Platner and leads most polls, however narrowly, going into the final month.
Only the final poll counts though, and it might be affected by a ProPublica expose about Susan Collins receiving money from defense contractor Navatek, and the FBI probe into the same that Donald Trump quashed.
Iowa - There are 71 members of Congress who are not seeking re-election. The previous record in recent years was 54, set in 2018. Donald Trump's first midterm election as president. Joni Ernst, Iowa's current, two-term Senator is one of those.
Best known for the "well, we're all going to die," quote when addressing her support for Medicaid cuts, she offered no reason for her retirement except for spending more time with her family.
Fighting for her seat are Josh Turek (D) and Ashley Hinson (R) (and a Libertarian polling at 1-6%). Turek has pulled ahead in recent polls, but–and say it with me–with a lead less than the number of undecided voters.
Iowa has been very Republican in recent years, voting for Donald Trump three times. But it also voted for Barack Obama twice.
Ohio - You may ask yourself, "If 100 Senators are elected every six years, wouldn't those divisions be closer to 33/33/34 instead of 32/33/35?" Well, that's very astute. JD Vance was a Senator when Donald Trump won a second term as president in 2024. He became vice president and Jon Husted (R) was appointed by the Governor to replace him.
Sherrod Brown (D) is a two term former Senator for Ohio and is running against him to hold the remaining two years of Vance's original term. So no matter who wins in Ohio, they'll be at this again in two years.
Brown has been ahead in almost every poll, but that's frequently with the assistance of Libertarian Bill Redpath who is likely pulling votes from Husted. If those voters and the undecided don't shift to Husted, it looks good for Brown, but only just.
An Aside
Backing up a scootch, one of those retiring Senators is Tommy Tuberville, whose crimes against human intelligence are too numerous to name. You don't have to be smart to be a member of today's Republican party, you just have to be corrupt.
I wrote that without being able to recall any specific instances of corruption tied to Tommy Tuberville, and when looking into it, it appears he was more often the victim of scammers and incompetent rather than nakedly corrupt. https://aldailynews.com/tuberville-dealings-include-failed-hedge-fund-charity/
But, y'know, stay tuned.
Backing up a scootch, one of those retiring Senators is Tommy Tuberville, whose crimes against human intelligence are too numerous to name. You don't have to be smart to be a member of today's Republican party, you just have to be corrupt.
I wrote that without being able to recall any specific instances of corruption tied to Tommy Tuberville, and when looking into it, it appears he was more often the victim of scammers and incompetent rather than nakedly corrupt. https://aldailynews.com/tuberville-dealings-include-failed-hedge-fund-charity/
But, y'know, stay tuned.
Michigan - Democratic incumbent Gary Peters declined to seek reelection, with no better reason I can discern than, "It got too hard." Abdul El-Sayed (D) and Mike Rogers (R) are competing for his seat.
Abdul El-Sayed is a controversial candidate because he…opposes funding Israel? And is a Muslim? And wants Medicare for All? I don't know. To say it explicitly: none of those things is controversial. One is a religion and two are policy positions.
The Green Party is also involved in this race because I guess…
I don't have a sarcastic conjecture. I've never known the Green Party to be anything but a fashionable spoiler for Democratic candidates and the choice to participate in this one race out of seven is telling. It's not funny, it's a farce.
Most polls show El-Sayed ahead, but not by enough for supporters to relax.
New Hampshire - Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen is also not seeking re-election and also without any real reason given. In light of that, Chris Pappas (D) and John E. Sununu (R) are competing for her seat.
New Hampshire is run by a Republican trifecta right now, but has consistently voted for Democratic presidential candidates. Of all of these toss-ups, Pappas is probably the strongest, with a significant lead over Sununu in almost every poll.
Texas - And finally, we get to Talarico vs Paxton. My first bit of analysis is, "how is this even close?" But more seriously, what has gone wrong that it's this close?!
Incumbent John Cornyn lost the primary runoff to Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General who tried to override local government stay at home orders during COVID, spoke at Trump's January 6th, pre-insurrection speech, sued the Biden administration 106 times, blocked a lawsuit over ExxonMobil's knowledge of climate change, and was impeached by his own party on twenty counts. He was acquitted by a 16-14 vote, seven votes short of the 21 needed to remove him from office.
That's not even the tip of the iceberg for actual felony-type crimes, including–wait for it–registering to vote from the address where he did not live. The classic, albeit technical, voter fraud.
Ken Paxton sucks so hard even black holes are like, "hol' up." He's a meritless slime and everything wrong with this country. He probably deserves a whole write-up, if I can get one done before November first.
Talarico has a razor-thin margin on him, and then probably only because of Ted Brown, the Libertarian in the race. I might give some money to Talarico, but I also might kick some to Ted Brown, no matter how messed up it makes my email inbox.
I wouldn't get my hopes up on Texas. I was there for Collin Allred and Beto O'Rourke. O'Rourke was a narrow loss (about 2.5%), but All was, relatively speaking, a bloodbath. Frankly, there's a wall of dumbasses in Texas that simply won't change their opinions.
Anyway, I guess I'm going to Texas this month.
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Sources:
The US midterm races that will decide control of Congress–mapped, The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/oct/02/midterm-races-control-congress-charts-visuals
2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings, Cook Political Report: https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings
2026 Senate Interactive Map, 270towin.com: https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/
Ballotpedia: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026 A major source for so much of this information.
The US midterm races that will decide control of Congress–mapped, The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/oct/02/midterm-races-control-congress-charts-visuals
2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings, Cook Political Report: https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings
2026 Senate Interactive Map, 270towin.com: https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/
Ballotpedia: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026 A major source for so much of this information.
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