It's all well and good to door the flavor of the week in the 2026 election. In less than a month, we all better drag our sorry carcasses into voting booths and take a solid, measurable step towards taking the united states–or maybe the Unites States--out of the massive credibility hole it's in.
And moral hole.
And military hole.
and economic hole.
And military hole.
and economic hole.
There's a midterm election, and mid term elections generally have poor turnout. The votes of the people who do turn up for them are more important. The midterm with the highest turnout in recent history was 2018, when Democrats took the House of Representatives with enough power to impeach President Trump, but not enough seats in the Senate to remove him from power for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.
So while we ponder that, let's look at the battlefield of the midterm elections in 2026. Where are the turning points? What are our goals, and where are the turning points? The media likes James Talarico and he seems nice, but the keys of a blue Texas have been dangled above reasonable people ever since reasonable people knew the dual act of Abbott & Paxton. As Bill Shatner once said, i"it hasn't happened yet."
So let's look beyond the faces, but keep our eyes on the handful of relevant races. First, there are a lot of sources for this, these will be at the end . Maybe just skip down and read some of those instead. The Guardian one is pretty good.
Look, Indivisible did 80% of this already.
538 was a good site with a lot of data, but it was bought by ABC for the power of the 538 brand and then ABC shut it down and directed that traffic to ABC's politics news page, which does not have that data.
The House
The house has 435 races. About 361 of those are classified as "safe" races, where one party is generally assumed to win (185 Democratic, 176 Republican). Another 74 are not safe.
